Belief vs. Doubt

MASTER BLASTER, Mindanao Daily Mirror May 31, 2011

It’s going to be a rematch of the 2006 championship when best of the West Dallas Mavericks face off with the beast of the East Miami Heat in this year’s NBA Finals.

I won’t be as excited as some hoop fans are, however.

Reason? Neither team is my favourite.

If there is anything tugging within me, it is the fact that a half-Filipino gets a chance to win an NBA title as a coach and that is Miami’s man on the bench Eric Spoelstra. Spo will naturally have the Filipino fans praying he wins an NBA title.

This time, I’m a kibitzer and will be objectively weighing the chances of both teams.

Miami is the overwhelming favourite to win this year from the day they signed their Big Three. I have said in the NBA Trash Talk facebook page that it will be a disaster for Miami not to win the Larry O’Brien trophy. An even worse disaster if it loses to the Bulls. But that is history now as the Heat have disposed off the Bulls in five.

There is overwhelming belief that Miami will win its second title this year with the Big Three. This belief was strengthened after the Heat sent the Celtics to an early vacation and then slaughtered the Bulls with a four-game sweep after losing Game 1 in the Eastern Finals.

There is reason to believe the Heat should win the title. Lebron James, D Wade and C Bosh combined is the basketball equivalent of a trinitrotoluene bomb. That’s a three-headed monster. And then there’s the support crew, the white hot crowd and the inspiration of a master in at Pat Riley.

Is there reason to doubt Miami could win it?

This is the issue of this year’s Finals. Belief vs. Doubt.

Miami will have to prove this overriding belief while Dallas will have to convince everyone to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Let’s take a look back at what happened in 2006.

Five years ago, Dirk Nowitzki and his Dallas Mavericks won the first two games at home, 90-80 and 99-86. Jason Terry and Dirk, the remaining two remnants of that squad, led the Mavs in both games. Jason pumped in 32 in Game 1 and Dirk scattered 26 in Game 2.

When the series shifted to South Beach, the Heat escaped with a 98-96 win in Game 3 with D Wade pouring in 42 as the Heat came back to life after being down 13 points in the 4^th with a huge rally sparked by the now retired Gary Payton. They followed it up with a 98-76 thumping in Game 4 to tie the series as Wade punctured the hoop with 36 and Miami limited Dallas to just 7 in the 4th.

Game 5 is one hell of a game Dallas would rather forget. With 9.1 ticks in OT and Dallas ahead 100-99, the Heat went to D Wade and the Mavs committed a ridiculous foul on him with 1.9 seconds left. Wade hit the first and as if ridiculous things would not end there, Josh Howard called for Dallas’ last timeout. This means that if D Wade connects on his second freebie, they could no longer call timeout and inbound from the sidelines. Wade connected on his second to shove Miami ahead 101-100 and there was no time for Dallas to put up a decent shot. Dirk kicked the ball to the stands after the game ad was fined.

Game 6 back to Texas. Jason Terry had the chance to send the game to OT but he missed a three as Miami wrapped up the series 95-92.

This year, only two Mavs from the 2006 roster will be back and that is Terry and Dirk. Miami will have D Wade and Udonis Haslem. The men at the bench will also be different. Gone are Pat Riley and Avery Johnson for Spo and Rick Carlisle.

The series will also necessarily involve some personalities outside the floor particularly Dallas owner Mark Cuban. In 2006, Cuban criticized the officiating for giving D Wade what he calls as “phantom fouls.” Lakers coach Phil Jackson would later blame it as the referees’ retaliation on the brash Cuban who is very vocal of his dissatisfaction over the league’s officiating.

Dirk Nowitzki will be the strongest proposition of any reasonable doubt Dallas will beat Miami. The 7-foot giant of a shooting guard is the hardest to defend in the NBA today. This is no exaggeration but the Heat should prepare to defend against Dirk like Navy Seals. Dirk should be defended on ground and air.

The doubt will also have strong propositions from Dallas’ snipers like Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic. And then you will have to stop two of the brainiest quarterbacks in Jason Kidd and Juan Barea.

Bottomline is that it is going to be a good series. Better than the 2007 Finals when Lebron made his first trip to the big stage against San Antonio that ended in shattered dreams for the wonder kid from Akron. This is Lebron’s first real chance to win a title and for Dirk, his last real chance.

Belief vs. Doubt. That is how this series will go.

If you believe in prophecy, bet on Miami, but in case of doubt, bet on Dallas.